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20121126
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Nov 26, 2012 2:00am EST
what would happen if we went over the fiscal cliff. the combination of higher taxes and spending cuts are estimated to take 4% out of a relatively weak gdp. even if we do not and some deal is struck, the combination of eliminating the payroll tax reduction, which seems to be something the administration supports, that, together with some base broadening, would probably be at least 2% of gdp. if there is going to be a deal, it would involve spending cuts as well. even if we avoid going over the cliff, it looks like there will be substantial fiscal contractionary impact next year. in that environment, what can the fed do to try to offset that to make sure that it does not take us to the edge of ore over the edge of a recession? >> we will see what deal comes out. but you are correct that even if the most extreme scenarios are avoided, some plausible scenarios still involved relatively contractionary fiscal policies over all. i made that point in my remarks when i said that under most plausible scenarios, no matter what happens, the tightening of federal fiscal policy will outweigh the s
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